In the latest episode of the Macro Voices podcast, Robert Kahn from the Eurasia Group explores major geopolitical risks that could shake up the financial markets. He highlights areas of concern like the possibility of Trump regaining power, strained US-China relations, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the chances of a ceasefire, the intricate situation involving Israel, Gaza, and Iran, as well as growing instability in Western Europe. Kahn points out that there's a high level of uncertainty and significant tail risks ahead, warning that markets may be too optimistic about the potential fallout from these issues, especially regarding increased tariffs and a possible conflict between the US and Iran. While he acknowledges that there are potential upside scenarios, he stresses the importance of scenario planning to navigate the complexities of today’s geopolitical climate.
