This podcast explores how upcoming US policy changes under a potential return of President Trump could impact the market. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research, delves into the discussions around legislative strategies for major policy issues like taxes, immigration, and tariffs. He concludes that whether legislation is passed as one large bill or several smaller ones matters less than the actual fiscal outcomes and their timing. Zezas anticipates a modest fiscal expansion around 2026, with any effects from possible tariffs likely delayed until late 2025 or 2026. As a result, he believes US equities and corporate credit are poised to perform well in early 2025, unless there's a significant acceleration in tariff implementation.
