Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.

Topics

1:22 – What is retrospective voting?
5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting
14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?
17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research
23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?
27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter
34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?
39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?
48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?
52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results
56:40 – Reactions to the results

Resources

Adam Dynes on Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes – #35

Manifold