This Macro Voices episode features an interview with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, focusing on the current state and future outlook of the crude oil market. The discussion begins with an overview of oil market fundamentals in 2024 and 2025, highlighting slow growth and low inventory levels. The hosts and guest then delve into the potential impact of President Trump's policies, including tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil and potential sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, analyzing how these policies could affect supply, demand, and pricing. A key takeaway is the importance of heavy blendstock in U.S. refining and the limited domestic sources for it, making Canadian imports crucial despite potential tariffs. The discussion concludes with speculation on geopolitical risks and their potential effects on oil prices, including the possibility of a significant market shock if OPEC were to significantly increase production.
