This podcast features an interview with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist for the Boston Consulting Group, discussing his book "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms." The conversation centers on the limitations of traditional macroeconomic models in predicting economic events, highlighting the frequent inaccuracies of recession forecasts. Carlsson-Szlezak advocates for a more eclectic approach incorporating narrative, judgment, and data analysis, emphasizing the need to understand the specific conditions that could lead to a true crisis rather than relying solely on model-based predictions. He uses examples like the inaccurate predictions surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent inflation spike to illustrate his points. Listeners gain a critical perspective on economic forecasting and a framework for evaluating macroeconomic risks.
