This Odd Lots podcast episode interviews George Saravelos, head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, to analyze the significant shift in European fiscal policy, particularly in Germany, spurred by perceived threats from the Trump administration. The discussion begins with an overview of the dramatic increase in German bond yields and the strengthening euro, followed by a detailed explanation of the unprecedented fiscal expansion planned by Germany, including infrastructure spending and defense budget increases. Saravelos compares this to German reunification, highlighting the speed and scale of the changes. The conversation then explores the implications for the US dollar and its reserve currency status, suggesting that the US needs sound economic policies to maintain its position. Finally, the impact on European politics and the potential for defense spending to drive growth are discussed.
