This Odd Lots podcast episode explores the history of papal prediction markets, beginning in Renaissance Rome. The interview with Ryan Isakow details how these markets functioned, involving various participants from aristocrats to brokers, and the information ecosystem that fueled them. Isakow discusses the 1591 papal bull that banned such betting due to concerns about manipulation and its impact on the church's image. The conversation then transitions to modern prediction markets, comparing their accuracy and the evolving social and ethical implications of widespread betting on various events, including papal elections. The discussion highlights the lack of regulation and the growing prevalence of gambling culture in modern society.
