Speakers:

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on June 13, 2025.

The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a huge amount of uncertainty across the industry and dominated our conversations at the Harbor Aluminum Summit in Chicago last week. Most participants held a rather sideways outlook on aluminum prices with two-sided corporate flow expected to continue to keep prices in a range though, others were a bit more cautious on future demand over the balance of the year. More confounding is the reaction in US aluminum premiums. The US Midwest premium (MWP) is barely high enough to cover the boosted tariff alone and well below the 70 c/lb or higher needed to incentivize necessary imports as the market remains uncertain about whether a 50% tariff on aluminum will eventually be walked back or if key exemptions may come through. Eventually, this stasis will have to break (MWP higher) if nothing changes on the tariff front.

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Global Commodities: Aluminum’s premium paralysis

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