In this episode of Forward Guidance, Felix, Tyler, and Quinn dissect the latest jobs report, highlighting the surprising drop in the unemployment rate and the impact of immigration on the labor market. They discuss the divergence between government and private payrolls, and the implications for Fed policy, noting that a July rate cut is unlikely. The conversation shifts to the shifting political landscape, with Trump's administration potentially embracing policies that could lead to negative real yields and a weaker dollar. They analyze the potential for a wealth transfer, the risks associated with high debt levels, and the disconnect between market euphoria and economic reality, ultimately debating whether current policies exacerbate wealth inequality and set the stage for future economic instability.
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