In this halftime recap of Black Friday — Cyber Monday, I unpack the avalanche of headlines claiming that AI shopping has finally arrived. Everywhere you look, analysts are touting explosive growth — 805% spikes, billions in generative AI-influenced sales, and a surge in chatbot-assisted shopping sessions. But as I dig into the data, I’m asking a much more important question: Does any of this actually signal a shift in real shopper behavior? The picture is far more nuanced than the hype suggests.

I walk through what the numbers truly reveal, why AI referrals may be inflated by simple math, and what early usage patterns can — and cannot— tell us about consumer adoption. We also look at the timing mismatch of newly released AI shopping tools, why retailers themselves are blocking the very future they claim to want, and where genuine behavior change did happen this weekend. If you’re trying to understand what’s real and what’s noise in this year’s holiday results, this episode will help you read between the lines.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline

[00:15] The big headline stats: AI-driven traffic surges and billions in generative-AI-influenced Black Friday sales.

[01:45] Why the 805% AI referral growth may say more about user base expansion than shopper behavior.

[03:00] The real reason Rufus conversions appear higher, and why it’s likely better search, not agentic shopping.

[04:00] The rush-job rollout of AI shopping tools and why consumers had almost no time to learn them before the retail holidays.

[05:30] How retailers are blocking AI tools to save server costs (and the hidden downside for product visibility).

[07:00] What actually changed this weekend: mobile dominance, wallet adoption, margins holding, and AI-powered customer support surging.

Links & Resources

Ian Simpson, SVP of Innovation & Strategy at Sensor Tower, shared an insightful post on LinkedIn
Scot Wingo has been tracking agentic commerce announcements on his Retailgentic blog
James Taylor, founder of ad-tech firm Particular Audience, dropped a post that captures the contradiction at the heart of retail's AI strategy
2025 Turkey 5 Salesforce Data
My latest piece for The Drum shares how Amazon keeps its ad coverage super high, and other retailers are moving in the same direction. Read here: You're not imagining it: Amazon really is a sea of ads (and it still works)
If you want a primer on the new research which I shared in The Drum article, join me and Pentaleap CEO Andreas Reiffen for a deep-dive this week, Thursday Dec 4 at 11AM ET [register for the LinkedIn Live event here]
Are you based in Atlanta or be in the ATL area on Weds Dec 3rd? Join me and a couple dozen of your new retail media industry besties for a festive happy hour! Register here
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AI Shopping Hype? My Black Friday to Cyber Monday Halftime Breakdown

Retail Media Breakfast Club