Host: Paul McIntyre, Editor-At-Large

In the last 20 years, KFC CMO Vanessa Rowed has worked across retail, banking, and QSR. Right now, compound market volatility makes “predicting demand really difficult” says Rowed.“That’s the biggest shift I am seeing.”

Boards and management are twitchy.

“Everything is just happening faster. At the same time, there's less margin for error … The illusion of stability is gone … It’s just complete volatility and it's the speed of volatility that people are struggling with,” per Rowed. “People are moving from asking, ‘what's happened’, to ‘what are we going to do?’

Rowed is walking the talk on velocity – it took just six days for the QSR giant to have all of its business data ingested into a first model run of the Mutinex MMM and her teams are firing up.

Mutinex CEO Henry Innis calls the broader market and civic state “the age of the erratic”. But flux presents opportunity for marketers: Organisations “are more willing to take risks to grow”, because, Innis says, they have little choice.

There’s also opportunity for marketing to move upstream by mapping what consumer and market instability means for demand forecasting and P&L impacts – questions Innis says would previously have been directed to the CFO or financial planning & analysis teams.

Rowed is seeing that play out: “I'm definitely seeing more risk taking now.” She says it’s born of necessity.

“At McDonald’s 15 years ago, we had an 18-24 month innovation process. Now you can’t wait 18 months to launch a product – it's been launched by my competitors three times. TikTok food trends come and go overnight … You’re ready to launch, then someone launches two weeks before you do and you have to pivot – that happens more frequently than you would expect.”

Hence wasting little time obtaining a sharper read on best growth bets. Rowed plugged into Mutinex upon joining KFC – with an initial model run completed in six days. “In past lives, that's taken us three, four months.”

Ex-Optus and Google top marketer Cam Luby joined pet food subscription scale-up Lyka four months ago and likewise immediately tapped Mutinex.

“When I was at Google, we would get back the equivalent of an MMM on a campaign six months after they finished ... ‘Okay, great. Thanks for the information. What do you expect us to do with it?’ … People were just busy writing history books, basically.”

Today’s MMM approach is less archaic.

“We've got the MMM updated to the end of March. We’re currently halfway through April, so the ability to make decisions about what we're going to do in the next few weeks based on what has happened in the last few weeks is … wildly different,” says Luby.

From a media perspective, Luby’s using the MMM to determine lost causes, where growth is left on the table – and what increasing ad investment will deliver in hard sales.

"[It provides] opportunity to recognise where your losers might be before they really hurt you. You can move to those a lot faster, and quickly optimise,” he says.

“A big one for me – as in just this week – is understanding what possibly is left in the tank: If we needed to drive a greater business result than what we're currently seeing, what more opportunity is there? Just very quickly understanding what is the max efficiency of all the channels that we're using ... We've now got the confidence to make a decision. We're going from 30,000 a week to 40,000 a week. Let's action that. Here's what we expect out of it. It gives you that confidence to move incredibly quickly and then see the results flow through in a very short time.”

He’s also using AI-powered functionality within Mutinex’s MAITE to unpick seasonality impacts on brand versus performance investments, plus handle reporting and presentation legwork ahead of board meetings: “I've got a board update that's coming up. So I said, ‘Can you please make me a table that does this, this, this, and this’ – copy paste, done. There's my table."

As well as growth bets, KFC’s Rowed will tap MMM to cut new product insights faster – with a live example in the last quarter.

“We launched a product and there were signs within a week that it wasn’t driving the incremental demand we needed. Historically, we would have waited until the end of that four-week promotional period, then analyse it three months later. But within one week, we said ‘this isn’t working’. We pivoted, reallocated media and creative, adjusted the plan mid-flight – and while we didn't hit the sales target that we needed to, we prevented loss. For me, that's just as important.”

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‘Age of the erratic’: How KFC’s Vanessa Rowed and Lyka’s Cam Luby are using MMM to navigate extreme volatility, bury dud products and replace them with better, faster

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