Why $1B Exits are Dead

AI-driven value creation is accelerating at an unprecedented pace, with frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic adding revenue faster than historical hyperscalers. The threshold for top-tier venture exits has surged to $32 billion, reflecting a 10x increase in just two years. Unlike previous cycles, the current AI landscape is defined by severe supply constraints in compute, power, and data centers rather than a lack of demand, which mitigates immediate bubble risks. As companies stay private longer and scale rapidly, venture firms are evolving their support models to provide specialized expertise in pricing, sales, and international expansion. While the market structure for model providers and the long-term impact of open source remain uncertain, the shift toward agentic AI and proactive enterprise engagement suggests that the most significant generational companies are currently being formed.