A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

Artificial intelligence represents a fundamental technological shift comparable to the internet or mobile, yet it remains in an early, experimental phase analogous to 1997. While fears of a "jobpocalypse" persist, historical precedent suggests that automation consistently unlocks new, unforeseen employment opportunities rather than permanently shrinking the labor market. Professional services remain critical because companies require external expertise to navigate complex organizational changes, debunking the notion that AI will immediately eliminate consultants. Foundation models are likely to become commoditized infrastructure, shifting the primary value capture toward application-layer software. Ultimately, the impact of AI is not a singular, predictable event but a gradual, multifaceted transformation that will require years of sector-specific integration. Distinguishing between simple tasks and complex jobs is essential for understanding where AI will provide genuine leverage versus where it will merely serve as a tool.