What remains scarce after AGI? – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell

The economic trajectory of an AGI-driven world hinges on the interplay between automation, labor share, and shifting scarcity. While historical labor shares have remained remarkably stable, AGI threatens to decouple productivity from human labor, potentially collapsing the labor share in fully automated supply chains. The "messy middle"—a transition period marked by rapid job displacement—poses significant political risks, yet the expansion of the technological frontier suggests that wealth creation will likely outpace displacement. Effective redistribution, whether through universal basic capital or negative income taxes, remains difficult due to the challenge of indexing a rapidly evolving economy. Ultimately, if AGI becomes a foundational utility like electricity, broad-based prosperity depends on whether the gains from AI are captured by concentrated private labs or diffused through commoditized access and widespread economic indexing.