At Any Rate

EM Fixed Income: EM resilience amid renewed USD strength and idiosyncratic pitfalls

Global FX: Broader impacts from the dollar bid

Macroeconomic shifts and currency strategies dominate the current market landscape, with the US dollar maintaining a bullish outlook driven by resilient growth and persistent core inflation. While European data remains soft, the Norwegian Krone benefits from hawkish central bank expectations and favorable rate spreads....

Global Commodities: What’s New?

Natural gas and precious metals markets are navigating significant structural shifts driven by geopolitical instability and evolving supply-demand dynamics. European natural gas markets face increased volatility as Asian buyers, seeking to replace Middle Eastern supply, pull spot volumes away from Europe, narrowing the...

EM Fixed Income: Assessing EM amid the global repricing of rates

Asia Cross Asset: Taking stock of the North Asian equity surge

North Asian equity markets, particularly in Korea and Taiwan, have experienced parabolic growth driven by sustained AI-related capital expenditure from U.S. hyperscalers. Improved AI monetization and a shift in the macro environment from Goldilocks to stagflation have narrowed market leadership, concentrating gains in ...

Global FX: EUR-USD divergences, systematic signals, sterling struggles

Global Commodities: Infrastructure 101

Global Rates: Analyzing Eurex and US futures roll and cross currency bases

Global Rates: Energy priced and UK politics drive Bunds and Gilt yields higher

EM Fixed Income: Inflation pressures and idiosyncratic EMEA EM politics

In Focus: Frontier AI

Global Rates – And now my fears, they come to me in threes

Recent payroll data indicates labor market stabilization, justifying the Federal Reserve’s current hold on interest rates despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility. While the Treasury’s latest refunding remained uneventful, underlying discussions suggest a potential shift in future duration supply ...

Global Commodities: An Inventory Detour

Global FX: Yentervention and other FX policy stories

EM Fixed Income: Parsing peace talks and payrolls

In Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx

AI-driven capital expenditure is fundamentally reshaping equity and credit markets, with hyperscalers projected to increase annual spending to $1.4 trillion, a scale comparable to global military budgets. This massive investment cycle drives robust earnings growth, particularly for AI-linked firms, while credit markets...

US Rates - I won’t see you next time

Global Commodities: It’s Simple Math

The global commodity market faces a deepening supply shock as conflict in the Middle East disrupts trade, causing significant demand loss and rapid inventory depletion. Industrial metals like aluminum and nickel exhibit acute supply chain strain, driven by smelter shutdowns, sulfur price volatility, and rising producti...

Global FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown

Global financial markets are recalibrating as central banks navigate shifting inflation and growth dynamics. The Japanese Yen remains a focal point following Ministry of Finance intervention, though medium-term bearishness persists due to the Bank of Japan's policy mix and global rate cycles. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s...

EM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season