At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Mind the Metals

Global FX: Winds of change for the dollar

EM Fixed Income: Assessing the situation and path ahead for EM in Week 2 of the Middle East conflict

US Credit: J.P. Morgan Global Leveraged Finance Conference 2026: Key Takeaways

Global Commodities: Oil and Gas Rocked by Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz conflict's impact on global energy markets is analyzed, focusing on oil and LNG. The discussion highlights that 20% of the global oil supply is stuck in the Strait, while for LNG, the figure is 17%, primarily affecting Qatar and the UAE. Concerns arise over storage capacity limitations, with Qatar ...

Global FX: The best escalation and recovery candidates

The podcast analyzes the potential impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and recent payroll data on currency markets. It explores how an energy price shock could challenge global growth and benefit energy-exporting currencies like NOK and AUD, while negatively impacting energy importers such as EUR, THB, a...

EM Fixed Income: Taking stock one week into the Middle East conflict

Global FX: The dollar & AI, CNY, IEEPA, euro bloc

European Rate Markets: Eurobonds, by-elections and the spring statement

Global Commodities: Gas Finds a Tighter Balance

EM Fixed Income: Risks around a positive base case

Global FX: Interrogating the optimistic baseline

The At Any Rate FX podcast centers on consolidating views on currency trends amidst a holiday-shortened week. The discussion addresses the surprising resilience of Aussie and Norway currencies despite tech stock volatility, attributing this to domestic cyclical strength and flow asymmetries rather than just commodity e...

Global Commodities: Going Against the Grain on Oil

Oil prices currently trade $7 to $10 above fair value due to transient geopolitical tensions and January supply disruptions rather than structural shifts. While market sentiment at International Energy Week remains bullish—citing potential Russian production cuts of 1 million barrels per day and conflict risks in Iran—...

Global Commodities: Are Commodities the Market’s Crystal Ball?

The commodity markets' recent volatility and potential future trends are analyzed, questioning whether the current sell-off is a harbinger or merely a correction. Natasha Kaneva and Greg Shearer discuss macro trends, highlighting reflation and global growth driven by less restrictive monetary policies and expansionary ...

Global FX: How much is too much?

The podcast explores the dynamics of FX in light of recent equity market volatility, focusing on whether the traditional inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar still holds. The discussion highlights that while structural reasons for a bearish dollar persist, a slight return to "risk on, risk off" behavior wa...

European Rates: Scandinavian rate outlook – a long winter hibernation

EM Fixed Income: Getting fully back on the EM horse

Global Rates: Analysing Eurex and US futures roll

Global FX: RBA, JP elections, euro/APAC rotation, dovish BoE, US data

Global Commodities: Deconstructing the Metal Mania