Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.
This More or Less podcast episode features an interview with Duncan Weldon, author of "Blood and Treasure," discussing the economic aspects of war and conflict throughout history. Using examples such as Viking raids, the Spanish Conquistadors' plunder of the Americas, and the Vietnam War, Weldon and host Tim Harford a...
In this episode of "More or Less," Tim Harford and his correspondents dissect various numerical claims in the news. They investigate a YouGov survey suggesting a resurgence in UK church attendance, questioning its validity against other data. The podcast also verifies the statistic that 1,000 people daily begin claimin...
This More or Less podcast episode investigates the reported one million Russian casualties in the war in Ukraine. Tim Harford interviews Seth Jones, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Defence and Security Department, and Olga Ivshina from the BBC Russian service. Jones confirms the figur...
In this episode of More or Less, Tim Harford and Josephine Casserly delve into the complexities of data surrounding group-based child sexual exploitation, highlighting the misleading nature of reported ethnicity statistics due to a high percentage of missing data. The discussion reveals that while initial reports sugge...
Tim Harford interviews Alex Edmans, author of "May Contain Lies," to discuss how seemingly plausible statistics can be misleading. They analyze examples such as the correlation between breastfeeding and child health (where confounding factors like home environment are crucial), the link between inequality and social p...
In this episode of More or Less, Tim Harford and his team investigate several statistics making headlines. They dissect a claim from The Sun about the cost of housing asylum seekers, revealing the figure is inflated and misrepresents the actual hotel bill. They then debunk a Spectator article stating 4% of young UK wom...
This More or Less podcast episode investigates the claim that there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit by 2030, a figure originating from a European Space Agency film. Host Tim Harford interviews astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who clarifies that while the number of operational satellites has increased dramatically fr...
In this episode of More or Less, Tim Harford answers listener questions with the help of experts, delving into the statistical claims surrounding various topics. The podcast explores the UK government's commitment to developing a 10-times more lethal army, the debated value of the Sycamore Gap tree, the comparison betw...
The More or Less podcast investigates a study claiming a significant underestimation of the global rural population. Tim Harford interviews Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher involved in the study, who clarifies that the research highlights inaccuracies in the location of populations within existing datasets, rather tha...
In this episode of "More or Less," Tim Harford and his team dissect statistical claims in the news. They begin by examining London Mayor Sadiq Khan's statements about the financial contributions of skilled migrants versus British workers, consulting expert Madeleine Sumption, who clarifies the figures and their proper ...
This More or Less podcast episode investigates the rising autism diagnosis rates in the US. The host interviews a physician-scientist and a professor of cognitive neuroscience to explore the reasons behind this increase. The discussion highlights that the increase is not solely due to a rise in the actual prevalence ...
This More or Less podcast episode investigates the United Nations' projections of fertility rates, specifically focusing on the unusual flatlining observed in Argentina's projected fertility rate after a period of decline. The interview with Patrick Gerland from the UN Population Division reveals that the UN's model r...
This episode explores the prevalence of bots on the internet, challenging the claim that over half of all internet traffic originates from bots. Against the backdrop of the "dead internet theory," the discussion investigates the various types of bots, differentiating between malicious bots involved in activities like ...
This episode explores the remarkable career and investment strategies of Warren Buffett, marking his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Against the backdrop of Buffett's announcement, the discussion delves into his investment philosophy, characterized by long-term stock holding and a focus on fundamental company...
This episode explores the dramatic rise in autism diagnoses, examining the complexities behind the increasing numbers and questioning the accuracy of the data. Against the backdrop of a 270% increase in child autism diagnoses and a 400% rise in waiting lists for specialists in England, the discussion delves into the d...
This episode explores the accuracy of claims made by Donald Trump during the first 100 days of his presidency. Against the backdrop of Trump's celebratory speech in Michigan, the podcast interviews Mike Wendling, a BBC reporter, to fact-check several statements. For instance, Trump's claim of an 87% decrease in egg p...
This episode explores the validity of the 80/20 rule—the claim that 80% of women are attracted to only 20% of men—as presented in the Netflix series Adolescence. Against the backdrop of this claim's appearance in an anti-feminist context, the podcast interviews Marina Adshade, a professor of economics, to investigate ...
This episode explores the history and application of statistical methods used to determine certainty in uncertain situations. Against the backdrop of D-Day in 1944, the podcast details how Allied statisticians, using only a few captured German Panther tanks and their serial numbers, accurately estimated German tank pr...
This episode explores the multifaceted concept of the "price of life," examining how monetary value is assigned to human life in various contexts. The discussion begins by investigating the cost of hiring a hitman, revealing significant discrepancies based on factors like the hitman's desperation rather than the victi...
This episode explores the questionable methodology behind President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on various countries. Against the backdrop of this announcement, the podcast interviews Thomas Sampson, an Associate Professor at the London School of Economics, to analyze the claims made by the President. ...
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