Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Western European economic growth shows unexpected resilience despite energy-related pressures and geopolitical instability. Recent data, including Euro area GDP and Swedish activity indicators, consistently outperform initial forecasts, suggesting that earlier sentiment-based PMI declines overstated the severity of the...
Global inflation momentum eased in mid-2024 as sharp declines in energy prices pulled headline figures down from 3.7% to 3.3%. Despite this, core inflation remains sticky near 3%, reflecting persistent underlying pressures. While the Euro area shows potential for a return to the 2% target supported by moderating wage g...
The global economy exhibits a resilient cyclical expansion, bolstered by strong PMI data and robust consumer spending, despite emerging geopolitical headwinds and rising energy costs. While manufacturing and tech sectors show signs of recovery, the potential for inflation remains a primary concern, particularly as ener...
The Western European economy shows unexpected resilience despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price shocks. Recent PMI data for both the UK and the euro area indicate growth near potential, suggesting consumers are successfully smoothing through inflationary pressures. While recession risks have receded, th...
Global economic growth is showing signs of building momentum, supported by resilient consumer spending and robust capital expenditure, particularly in the tech sector. While energy price risks and potential fiscal impulses in the U.S. warrant caution, current data suggests a stronger-than-expected cyclical lift. The la...
Western European economic growth shows unexpected resilience despite ongoing energy price shocks and persistent inflationary pressures. Recent data, including improved PMI readings and stronger-than-expected industrial production, suggest that households are smoothing consumption more effectively than previously antici...
Global economic growth remains resilient, with consumer spending tracking stronger than anticipated due to significant wealth gains. This sustained momentum challenges previous expectations of a slowdown, shifting the focus toward potential monetary tightening. While core inflation remains sticky near 3%, the debate ce...
Euro area economic growth shows signs of potential upside for the second quarter, driven by resilient manufacturing data and unexpected strength in consumer goods spending. While German industrial indicators, such as orders and factory sales, suggest a positive outlook bolstered by government reform efforts, the broade...
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