Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Fiscal policy challenges in Western Europe, particularly in France and the UK, stem from persistent structural deficits and recent market volatility. In France, political fragmentation complicates the implementation of necessary fiscal consolidation, despite a growing awareness across the political spectrum—including t...
Global economic growth remains resilient, supported by strong business surveys and positive PMI readings that signal continued cyclical expansion. While U.S. consumer spending shows signs of cooling from its third-quarter peak, labor market fundamentals, specifically hours worked, remain robust. Inflationary pressures ...
Global economic growth remains robust, moving at over half a percentage point above trend, yet labor market data consistently fails to mirror this momentum. A fundamental debate persists regarding whether this expansion can be sustained without a corresponding rebound in job creation. While some argue that technology-d...
France’s 2027 budget proposal signals a commitment to structural fiscal consolidation, even as political instability and the absence of a parliamentary majority complicate implementation. While market volatility and rising sovereign bond yields have intensified, these movements stem primarily from broader global econom...
Global inflation momentum is rebounding following a mid-year moderation, fueled by a renewed rise in consumer energy prices and firming core goods inflation. In the United States, core PCE inflation remains elevated despite recent methodology revisions, prompting expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes. Me...
The global economy is currently experiencing a broad-based, mid-cycle growth uptick, with the U.S. maintaining an underlying growth pace near 3%. Financial markets are pricing in an extended period of higher interest rates, signaling a shift in the perceived neutral rate driven by technological shocks and increased cap...
Macroeconomic data across Western Europe points toward a hawkish shift in central bank policies as growth proves more resilient than previously anticipated. Euro area PMI reports indicate annualized growth of 1.7%, prompting markets to price in at least four additional ECB rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of England con...
Advanced economy central banks are initiating a synchronized cycle of interest rate hikes, signaling an end to the expectation of "immaculate disinflation." Sticky inflation and resilient growth have forced policymakers to abandon the belief that inflation will naturally return to target levels. Applying a standard Tay...
European and UK economies are demonstrating surprising resilience against ongoing energy shocks, prompting central banks to adopt increasingly hawkish stances. While initial forecasts anticipated systemic weakness, recent data shows growth holding steady, fueled by AI-related investment and robust business activity in ...
The global economy exhibits strong cyclical momentum, evidenced by robust PMI readings across both manufacturing and services sectors. While the U.S. labor market previously appeared disconnected from high consumer spending, recent payroll data indicates improved alignment through stronger wage growth and increased hou...
Euro area economic growth maintains an above-potential pace, supported by resilient survey data despite localized weaknesses in France and softening capital expenditure. Energy prices continue to drive inflation uncertainty, though current storage levels and improved government coordination mitigate the risk of severe ...
Global core inflation remains stubbornly stuck at approximately 2.7% year-on-year, signaling a transition where the initial disinflationary impulse from lower energy prices is losing momentum. A notable rotation is underway as services inflation moderates, largely due to fading wage pressures, while core goods inflatio...
Inflationary trends in Turkey and Kazakhstan remain elevated above targets, driven by distinct structural and supply-side pressures. In Turkey, the disinflation process, initiated by rate hikes and fiscal consolidation, has stalled due to Middle East conflict-related energy and food price shocks and deeply unanchored i...
Rising long-term interest rates reflect fundamental shifts in the global economy, driven by an accelerating credit cycle and persistent fiscal deficits rather than mere central bank policy adjustments. While July employment data in the U.S. suggests a potential soft patch, broader business sentiment and manufacturing a...
Western European economic activity remains resilient, with recent PMI data signaling growth near 1.5% despite ongoing energy market volatility and environmental constraints. Germany’s manufacturing sector shows notable improvement, bolstered by defense and infrastructure investments, while services remain stable across...
Georgia’s economy demonstrates remarkable resilience, maintaining growth rates between 7% and 8% by transitioning from traditional sectors to a service-oriented model. The rapid expansion of the IT sector, which contributes an additional $1 billion in net revenue, serves as a primary growth engine. Macroeconomic stabil...
The July U.S. employment report signals a potential shift in economic momentum, with private payrolls averaging only 40,000 over the last three months, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending. While global PMI data and robust domestic demand in Asian economies support a cyclical recovery, the lab...
The global economic outlook hinges on a debate between a sustained cyclical lift and mounting downside risks. Recent data, including resilient consumer spending and a pickup in non-tech capital expenditure, support an optimistic view of the second half of the year, despite soft second-quarter GDP prints. Conversely, ti...
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