Excess Returns

Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?

You Own the Mag Seven. Small Caps Are Building What AI Needs. Is the Market About to Notice?

Small-cap investing offers a compelling opportunity for diversification and growth, particularly as earnings expectations for smaller companies accelerate relative to mega-cap peers. Tom Maher, manager of Hilton Capital’s small and mid-cap strategy, argues that active management is essential to navigate index-level det...

Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?

Investment success hinges on distinguishing between market overreactions and fundamental shifts, particularly regarding AI, inflation, and position sizing. While AI creates clear winners in hardware, software companies with proprietary data remain resilient, defying simplistic disruption narratives. Inflationary pressu...

Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

The U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by robust consumer spending and significant AI-driven capital investment. Contrary to persistent recession fears, the "Roaring 2020s" thesis suggests that productivity gains from emerging technologies will drive long-term prosperity. Rather than a K-shaped recovery, a G-sha...

The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

Rising long-term interest rates define the current economic landscape, driven by robust growth expectations and significant fiscal deficits rather than shifting inflation trends. While the bond market reflects these pressures, equity investors remain largely unhedged, positioning instead for a potential decline in yiel...

They Beat All US Stock Funds Since 2003 | Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss

Growth equity investing requires identifying companies with sustainable competitive advantages and mission-driven leadership rather than chasing short-term market trends. Michael Baron, co-president and portfolio manager at Baron Capital, emphasizes that successful long-term performance stems from deep, primary researc...

21-Year Options Trader: How to Size Your Best Ideas - And Avoid Risk of Ruin

Rates Are Spiking. The S&P Is One Big AI Bet. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don't Own?

Financial market participants face shifting risks as traditional diversification strategies encounter new challenges. Treasury market interventions, while intended to suppress interest rates, exert minimal influence compared to the dominant drivers of growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the concentration of market beta in...

Jobs Look Strong. Workers Are Disappearing | Why Eric Pachman is Watching Diesel Prices

Official economic indicators like the monthly jobs report and CPI often obscure the lived reality of the American consumer due to declining survey response rates and reliance on broad, weighted averages. Labor market strength is frequently overstated by focusing on low-wage service roles, while the recent contraction i...

The "Permabear" Holds 50% Stocks. 7 Sectors Barely Grew. What If Stocks Stop Carrying the Economy?

Inflation Falls When Stocks Do | Andy Constan on the Fed Hike, AI Capex and Why He Likes Bonds Again

We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks

Current market volatility stems from policy uncertainty and an over-reliance on the generative AI trade, rather than broad-based monetary inflation. While oil price shocks create visible inflation, underlying data from labor and housing markets suggest a cooling economy. Treasury bonds offer a compelling entry point as...

We Asked Franklin Templeton's CEO What AI Won't Replace — And If Private Markets Belong in Your 401k

Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, examines the transformation of asset management through technological innovation and long-term strategic planning. AI serves as a powerful tool for productivity, requiring professionals to leverage these technologies to remain relevant rather than fearing displacement. Blockcha...

The Moats Are Invisible. So Is the Risk in Your Bond Fund. What Else Can't You See?

Investment strategies and portfolio construction require navigating complex market realities, from identifying "invisible moats" to managing risk-adjusted returns. Competitive advantages often reside in intangible cultural or operational processes rather than easily quantifiable metrics, challenging traditional valuati...

Jim Paulsen Sees a Tech Bear Market Coming | The 27 Charts Behind His Warning for Stocks

Aggregate economic data masks a bifurcated reality where "brainiac" tech earnings soar while the broader market stagnates. This divergence, coupled with a lack of real job growth and declining labor participation, signals underlying economic fragility. While the stock market has benefited from a "wall of worry" created...

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Market participants face heightened uncertainty as the S&P 500 hovers near all-time highs amid geopolitical instability in Iran, rising oil prices, and an impending Federal Reserve rate decision. The upcoming September options expiration, potentially the largest on record, creates significant downside risk; negative ga...

The 40-Year Bond Bull Is Over. Your 60/40 Didn't Get the Memo | The Bet Hiding in Your Bond Fund

The current fixed-income landscape requires a fundamental shift in strategy as secular inflationary pressures and cyclical fiscal spending challenge the traditional 60-40 portfolio model. Investors often struggle with bonds because the aggregate index, heavily weighted toward treasuries and corporate credit, offers exc...

All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong

The "Awesome Portfolio" strategy centers on an equal 20% allocation across stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate to mitigate market volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns. Author Jared Dillian argues that modern investors, particularly those heavily concentrated in index funds, face significant psychological...

The AI Demand Is Real. The Accounting Games Are Growing. How Long Can Both Be True?

Market participants must balance optimism for AI-driven productivity with a healthy skepticism toward corporate narratives and accounting practices. While the "agentic" phase of AI shows genuine potential for operational ROI, history demonstrates that even industry leaders can fail, making "buy and hold" strategies ris...

Buffett's Mistakes Had One Cause | The 100 Year Thinkers on the Hardest Part of Holding Forever

Long-term wealth creation stems from identifying high-quality businesses capable of reinvesting capital at elevated rates of return over extended periods. Successful investors often employ a "coffee can" strategy, holding exceptional companies through market volatility and macroeconomic cycles rather than reacting to d...