Monetary science reborn. Rediscovering the principles of currency. Putting central banks where they belong. Welcome to Eurodollar University, your place for all things modern money and monetary science. The YouTube channel for Jeff Snider, from here you can begin to investigate all the ways in which the global monetary system impacts you: economy, politics, investments and more.
August consumer credit data reveals a seemingly paradoxical trend: a sharp decline in revolving credit alongside a surge in installment borrowing. This behavior is not contradictory but stems from a shared sense of deteriorating affordability and economic insecurity. Households are cutting back on credit cards due to m...
Jamie Dimon’s recurring warnings regarding sticky inflation and rising interest rates often serve as a contrarian indicator for the bond market. While Dimon publicly predicts higher rates, historical data from 2018, 2002, and 2007 shows these warnings frequently coincide with market turning points where yields subseque...
The credit cycle is entering a definitive downturn, evidenced by surging redemption requests at private credit giants like Blue Owl and mounting weakness across the banking sector. Despite industry insistence on resilience, market participants are increasingly skeptical, as shown by the KBW Bank Index’s decline and ris...
The September payroll report confirms a fragile labor market, exposing the inaccuracy of the Federal Reserve’s "resilient" narrative. While monthly fluctuations often trigger optimistic headlines, the long-term trend reveals a 9.7 million job deficit relative to the 2010s baseline, signaling a persistent "forgot-how-to...
Rising credit spreads are flashing a warning sign as risk aversion migrates from the junkiest credit tiers into the investment-grade market, signaling a potential shift in the broader economic landscape. This trend, coupled with the "September cubed" effect—a confluence of seasonal liquidity bottlenecks and recurring c...
McDonald’s recent financial struggles and lowered sales outlook signal a deeper, systemic economic crisis rather than a mere corporate failure. Despite its reputation for affordability, the chain is losing customers who lack the disposable income to keep pace with rising costs. This disconnect highlights a broader econ...
Rising energy and input costs are forcing companies like Pepsi to abandon price cuts, signaling a deepening economic squeeze that contradicts recent optimistic retail and PMI data. While businesses initially interpreted surges in purchasing as signs of a booming economy, this activity represents panic buying as consume...
The current Treasury yield curve, characterized by a steep front and a flat back, signals a profound disconnect between Federal Reserve policy and market expectations. This rare configuration—occurring only 5.4% of the time since 1990—indicates that while the Fed aggressively hikes rates to combat perceived inflation, ...
Currency valuations are fundamentally driven by mechanical dollar flows and commercial demand rather than the traditional textbook focus on interest rate differentials. Nations like India and Japan struggle to stabilize their currencies through rate hikes and market interventions because they remain trapped in a persis...
The AI infrastructure boom is encountering a critical shift as credit markets move from abundant, low-cost capital to a regime of high-yield, risk-sensitive financing. SoftBank’s recent bond issuance at yields approaching 10% and the stalling of Oracle-linked data center debt highlight this growing resistance. Private ...
The bond market is signaling a shift in economic expectations as the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread narrows to 20 basis points, approaching inversion. While the front end of the curve reflects the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on energy-driven inflation, the long end is increasingly pricing in demand destructi...
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates stems from symbolic messaging rather than genuine economic necessity. While officials point to a resilient labor market and persistent inflation as justification, they rely on flawed metrics like the official unemployment rate, which fails to account for workers dro...
The mainstream narrative of a resilient economy masks the reality of mounting financial pressure on American households. Retailers like Kroger are reporting declining sales and reduced consumer frequency, indicating that inflation in essential goods like food and energy is forcing households to cut back on non-essentia...
The current economic landscape points toward inevitable demand destruction, as rising energy prices and persistent inflation fears drive the Federal Reserve toward aggressive, potentially counterproductive rate hikes. Despite headline CPI figures, there is no evidence of broadening price pressures or "second-round effe...
Rising consumer anxiety regarding job security, currently at its highest level since April 2020 with a 44.4% perceived probability of increased unemployment, signals a shift toward economic demand destruction rather than a sustained inflationary spiral. Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, household behavior—c...
Private credit markets face a reckoning as the "100 to 0" valuation collapse—exemplified by the sudden failures of Loparex and Renovo—reveals that assets previously marked at par were significantly overvalued. These abrupt write-downs expose the inherent opacity of private credit, where internal models often mask under...
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