Top Traders Unplugged

SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton

Trend following and managed futures strategies rely on a disciplined, agnostic approach to market participation, prioritizing structural market behaviors over predictive modeling. Pat Welton, founder of Welton Investment Corporation, emphasizes that successful trading requires a rigorous framework defined by the "Four ...

SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Market volatility and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in asset management dominate the conversation. Trend following strategies have recently benefited from significant fixed income short positions, outperforming other asset classes as global yields rise. The discussion examines the limitations of using vo...

OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock

Power markets operate at the intersection of physics, weather, and economics, requiring constant grid balancing to prevent blackouts. Cory Paddock, co-founder of GBE Energy, explains that successful trading in the PJM market relies on identifying supply-demand mismatches through a combination of public data and proprie...

SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan

IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

Bond markets function as a critical technology for state power, enabling nations to finance infrastructure and military endeavors through debt. Historically, the Venetian Republic pioneered this model by transforming forced war taxes into tradable, fixed-interest assets, a practice later refined by the UK to establish ...

SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver

Systematic investing and trend following strategies face a complex landscape defined by shifting bond market dynamics and concerns over government debt. While fixed income yields rise, the recent structural changes in the Simplify Managed Futures ETF (ticker: CTA) underscore the dangers of style drift and the importanc...

GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

The global economic landscape faces significant shifts as the Federal Reserve reevaluates policy amidst persistent inflation and uncertain productivity trends. While artificial intelligence drives substantial capital expenditure, current data lacks evidence of a productivity boom, making direct comparisons to the 1990s...

SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git

Trend-following strategies remain remarkably consistent across diverse economic regimes, as evidenced by data spanning over 130 years. While recent performance has faced scrutiny, the strategy’s defensive nature and positive convexity continue to provide essential portfolio protection. Beyond broad performance, success...

GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth

Central banking faces a crisis of legitimacy as the New Keynesian framework fails to account for the structural realities of modern global macroeconomics. Inflation is primarily a function of expectations rather than mechanical monetary adjustments, yet central banks remain trapped in a cycle of hubris and groupthink. ...

SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne

The global macro regime is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving away from the disinflationary environment of the last four decades toward a landscape defined by sticky inflation, rising debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. Recent US interventions in the yen and bond markets underscore...

IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth

Investing success relies on managing uncertainty rather than attempting to predict market outcomes. David Booth, founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, argues that the modern public market offers an efficient, low-cost vehicle for long-term growth that benefits from human ingenuity and competitive pricing. By focusing o...

SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Global markets currently exhibit several warning signs, characterized by increased volatility in individual stocks, excessive leverage in market-making firms, and liquidity challenges within the U.S. Treasury market. The Treasury’s recent buyback program, while intended to stabilize off-the-run bond liquidity, highligh...

ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle

The current macro environment represents a fundamental shift from the demand-constrained 2010s to a supply-driven regime characterized by geopolitical shocks, increased fiscal activism, and the massive capital expenditure required for artificial intelligence. This transition challenges traditional portfolio constructio...

SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Systematic investing strategies, particularly Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), continue to provide essential portfolio diversification, delivering strong year-to-date gains despite broader market volatility. The industry is moving away from the narrow "crisis alpha" narrative toward a broader framework of risk-mitiga...

ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau

The current macroeconomic regime is defined by a structural shift toward geopolitical fragmentation, economic nationalism, and an AI-driven supercycle. Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of Syz Private Bank, argues that the era of cost-minimization has ended, replaced by a focus on reshoring and domestic security, which acts a...

SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore

Systematic investing and trend following strategies provide essential resilience against unpredictable market shocks, particularly when traditional asset correlations converge during left-tail events. Trend following’s capital efficiency allows investors to maintain core equity exposure while layering uncorrelated alph...

ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai

Managing a $1.2 billion endowment requires treating the portfolio as a "forever retiree" that balances dependable income, inflation protection, and long-term capital growth. Paul Chai, CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, employs a disciplined Strategic Asset Allocation framework to navigate market volatility...

SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan

Financial markets function as complex adaptive systems characterized by non-stationarity and reflexivity, rather than predictable statistical distributions. Traditional risk metrics like volatility and Sharpe ratios fail to account for path dependency and the geometric reality of wealth production, often masking fragil...

IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed

Recessions are not inevitable consequences of economic booms or systemic excesses, but rather the result of unpredictable, exogenous shocks. By analyzing four centuries of data, Tyler Goodspeed—Chief Economist of ExxonMobil and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors—demonstrates that economic expansions do no...